Is a US-Saudi-Russia Production Cut Viable? 원유 감산 가능한가?

줄여말하면 불가능하지는..않다. 다만 기존에 한차례 기사를 가져와 쓴 것처럼 이제는 미국의 문제이

다. 단, 미국은 석유업체들이 국영기업이 아니라 감산에 동의한다해도 신빙성이 없다는 것. 한차례 미뤄진 합의 날짜가 4월 9일에도 과연, 타결에 이를 수 있을지 그게 걱정이다. 내일은 삼성전자 이번주에는 기업들의 1분기 실적의 발표가 있다. 코로나 여파를 완전히 반영하지 못한 실적발표지만 시장에 어떤 충격을 줄지 내일이 기대된다. 

오늘 주식은 기관매수의 여파로 1800선 바로 턱 밑까지 반등하였다. 

It’s not impossible, but it does remain unlikely. That’s according to analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, who outlined the view in a report sent to Rigzone on Monday.

“From the perspective of both Saudi Arabia and Russia, such a deal would represent a major strategic win,” the analysts stated in the report.

“The stumbling block comes on the U.S. side, where the support for such an accord is currently lacking among both regulators and producers,” the analysts added.

“Such coordinated action could be mandated by the government. However, the technical feasibility of such a cut has already been called into question and, without the support of key producers, its implementation and enforcement would almost certainly fail,” the analysts continued.

In addition, the analysts outlined that it is unclear how long it would take to negotiate and then enact an agreement between the three countries, as well as other OPEC and non-OPEC producers. 몇몇 국가 북유럽의 산유국은 미국이 동의한다면 하는 단서조항을 달아놓은 상태이다. 

Unless a new production cut deal can be brokered soon, oil prices look set for “renewed and deep declines” this quarter, according to the analysts.

“The second quarter likely marks the nadir for global oil markets, after which Covid-19 containment measures should be rolled back, opening the door on a recovery in demand,” the analysts stated in the report.

“That said, the timing, pace and strength of such a recovery is by no means assured and, in our view, new social behaviors will likely prove sticky,” the analysts added.

 

Oil prices crashed last month after OPEC+ failed to reach a deal on production cuts at their last meeting. Bloomberg reported today that a new OPEC+ meeting was scheduled for Monday but got pushed back to other day.

 

복잡하게 돌아가는 일주일이 될것으로 보인다. 금일은 Cryptocurrency도 반등하고 주가도 반등하는 하루였다. 

기술적 반등안에 들어가는 반등처럼 보이지만 기존 고점을 넘어섰다는 점에서 내일도 Rally를 이러나갈수 있을지 기대가 된다.